10 Million Switzerland: Consequences of the initiative for the real estate market
Published: June 3, 2026
Topics
On June 14, 2026, Switzerland will vote on the popular initiative “No 10-Million Switzerland!”, which seeks to ensure the country’s permanent resident population does not exceed 10 million before 2050. From a real estate market perspective, the logic initially appears simple: lower immigration would reduce incremental housing demand and, in turn, ease upward pressure on property values. However, this only captures part of the picture. The real estate market is considerably more complex, and adoption of the initiative would not only affect demand but also supply. The already tense rental housing market could tighten further, particularly in the transition period before the population threshold is reached. This article examines the key mechanisms that could impact the market from a conceptual perspective.
Summary
- Limiting immigration before Switzerland’s population reaches 10 million would reduce incremental housing demand over the long term. This would also ease upward pressure on the market values of properties and development land. In contrast, the dampening effect on residential rents would likely materialize only with a delay.
- Housing demand will continue to grow until the threshold is reached. At the same time, expectations of future demand constraints could already reduce the attractiveness of new residential development projects today. If construction activity declines during this transition phase, housing supply would expand more slowly, potentially intensifying current upward pressure on asking rents.
- Migration is an important driver of real estate price trends, but it is not the only one. Housing market conditions, living space consumption, interest rates, wage growth, and, above all, the responsiveness of the construction sector also play a crucial role.
Initiative and housing shortage
The 10-Million initiative aims to limit immigration to Switzerland. Specifically, it requires that the country’s permanent resident population remain below 10 million people before 2050. If the population exceeds 9.5 million, the Federal Council and parliament would have to introduce countermeasures. Further, if the 10-million threshold is exceeded for more than two years, the initiative calls for the termination of the free movement of persons agreement with the European Union as a last resort.
Housing plays a central role in the referendum debate. The initiative is presented as a contribution to combating the housing shortage – an argument that resonates against a currently exceptionally tight Swiss housing market. Over the past 30 years, Switzerland’s population growth has been one of the most dynamic in Europe. Since 2000, the permanent resident population has increased by around 26%, surpassing 9 million residents in 2024. At the same time, the national vacancy rate published by the Federal Statistical Office fell to just 1.0% in 2025, while the rental housing supply remains at historically low levels. Alongside weak construction activity, strong household growth in recent years has also contributed to declining vacancy rates. This is precisely where the initiative positions itself: by slowing future population growth, it seeks to reduce pressure on the housing market.
Reaching the population thresholds
According to Wüest Partner’s population forecast, Switzerland is expected to reach 9.5 million residents in 2031, while the population would likely exceed 10 million in 2041. These projections are broadly aligned with the reference scenario published by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office (FSO). However, population forecasts always involve uncertainty, regardless of political intervention, making alternative scenarios very relevant. Under the FSO’s high-growth scenario, the two thresholds would already be reached in 2029 and 2033, respectively. Under the low-growth scenario, by contrast, Switzerland’s population would begin to decline from 2043 onward without ever exceeding 9.5 million residents.
In its base scenario, Wüest Partner assumes that approximately 90% of population growth in Switzerland will continue to result from immigration. Accordingly, population development over the next few years will depend heavily on net immigration (international immigration minus emigration). If immigration were to actually decline noticeably after reaching the 10-million threshold, the population in Switzerland would likely level off at around 10 million in the medium term. A possible implementation scenario is illustrated in the chart above, which is broadly based on a proposal developed by a consulting firm on behalf of the Federal Administration. Wüest Partner therefore considers a slight slowdown in immigration in the 2030s to be likely, followed by a sideways movement from the mid-2040s after reaching the 10-million threshold.
Two phases of impact
Acceptance of the initiative is likely to affect the real estate market in two phases.
During the transition phase between the referendum date and the point at which implementation measures begin to significantly reduce immigration, the population would initially continue to grow. At the same time, the construction and real estate industries – sectors heavily influenced by expectations – would already begin adjusting to structurally slower long-term demand growth.
Over the longer term, once the population thresholds are reached, immigration would effectively be curbed. The real estate market would then move toward a new equilibrium in which housing demand grows at a structurally slower pace than during the two decades preceding the referendum.
Transition phase: Increased housing shortage
Switzerland’s population is likely to continue growing until the thresholds are reached, as the country’s attractiveness remains high. Consequently, residential housing demand would continue to rise during this period, regardless of the referendum outcome. The development of supply, however, is less certain. If adoption of the initiative reinforces expectations that Switzerland’s long-term population growth will weaken significantly, construction activity could already be affected before the population threshold is reached. Development decisions are heavily dependent on future expectations, which could influence the market in several ways:
- On the one hand, the construction of additional residential space becomes less attractive if the long-term development of demand appears uncertain. As a result, less capital is likely to flow into new residential space. This would be particularly noticeable in suburban municipalities, which have recently experienced strong growth, partly because domestic migration from urban centers has shifted there and additional living space could be created comparatively easily. Instead, more capital is likely to flow into modernizing the existing stock in attractive long-term locations. In addition, implementing the initiative would likely create substantial regulatory and economic uncertainty, which typically dampens investment activity.
- On the other hand, there is an incentive to use existing building reserves and commercialize projects quickly, as long as the population continues to grow. Some owners are currently holding back on building land in order to only develop it once sales prices have risen again. If this — perfectly rational — speculation were to cease, construction activity could even increase in the short term.
Theory aside, in practice, planning and approval processes in the construction market are lengthy, and the different phases overlap. Numerous new construction projects were approved in 2025, the majority of which are likely to proceed despite the altered market situation. In the coming years, however, adoption of the initiative could further tighten Switzerland’s already constrained housing supply, as incentives to create additional housing would likely weaken overall. At the same time, the population would continue growing in the near term. The current housing demand and the existing supply would therefore primarily determine the asking rents.
The situation is different for the current market values of investment properties, residential property, and development land, where expectations of future developments are already priced in. Accordingly, the price-dampening effect in these segments would already be expected in the transition phase. This is particularly true for development land, as both the long-term expectation of lower rental income per square meter with fewer inhabitants and a possible decrease in Switzerland’s attractiveness as an investment location are factored into its market value.
Price effects over the long term
It is undisputed that population growth increases the demand for housing and, consequently, housing prices. There is extensive empirical evidence supporting this. For Switzerland, for example, Helfer, Grossmann, and Osikominu (2023) demonstrate this in a study that emerged from a thesis that was awarded a prize by Wüest Partner in 2015. They estimate that annual net immigration, equivalent to 1% of the population, increased residential property prices and asking rents in Switzerland by around 2% in recent years. Wüest Partner’s fundamental value model also points in the same direction: according to the model, an additional population growth of 1 percentage point increases the price growth of residential property by around 1.5 percentage points. Dubois and Weinert (2024) also conclude that a 1% population growth raises asking rents by 1%. Conversely, this means that slower population growth is likely to dampen asking rents and prices.
Rents more directly affected than residential property prices
The direct impact of lower immigration on residential property prices is likely to be less pronounced than its effect on asking rents. Firstly, pricing in the owner-occupied housing market is more strongly influenced by interest rates, financing conditions, yield expectations, and supply shortages than by household growth alone. Secondly, the share of foreign households in owner-occupied housing is significantly lower. In 2023, 44% of households consisting exclusively of Swiss citizens lived in owner-occupied homes. Among households without Swiss citizenship, this share was only 12%.
As a result, even after several years in Switzerland, the majority of immigrants remain renters. This is due in part to regulatory restrictions, their lower average age, and the fact that many stays are temporary or accompanied by limited equity.
Indirect effects on demand and supply
At this point, it is important to note that the empirical effects cited above are based on ceteris paribus observations. In other words, they assume that only population growth changes, while all other framework conditions — such as the housing vacancy rate — remain unchanged. However, approval of the initiative is likely to influence not only population growth, but also other factors relevant to real estate pricing.
The initiative would weaken Switzerland’s long-term economic potential: in 2025, 35% of the workforce consisted of foreign nationals. If the availability of immigrant labor were to decline, economic growth would likely slow. This would affect the construction industry in particular, limiting its capacity to increase production of dwelling units and thus potentially preventing it from easing the housing shortage. Foreign nationals account for roughly two-thirds of the workforce in the construction sector. A structural shortage of skilled labor is already emerging, and by 2040, the construction industry is expected to face a shortfall of around 5,600 workers – equivalent to approximately 16% of labor demand. Additional restrictions on immigration could therefore dampen housing demand, while at the same time significantly reducing the capacity to build additional housing units.
In addition, the population’s consumption of living space also reacts to price developments. It is quite possible that slower price growth could encourage household formation and increase per capita living space consumption.
Importance of market conditions
It remains to be seen how the initiative would be implemented if approved and what state the real estate market would be in at the time of any potential immigration restrictions. If the market remains highly strained, limiting demand would likely have a much stronger impact. Conversely, if the market is already experiencing an expansion in supply or weaker economic conditions, the direct effect would likely be less pronounced. Moreover, real estate prices at the point when the proposed population limits are reached will depend on more than population size alone. In the owner-occupied housing segment, mortgage interest rates, household wealth, and inflation are particularly important drivers. In the rental market, the reference interest rate and vacancy rate also shape price trends. Immigration therefore undoubtedly influences pricing dynamics, but its effect is embedded within a broader economic context.
The key role of the construction sector
The construction sector plays a central role in the dynamics of the real estate market, determining whether rising housing demand can be quickly met by additional supply. If new housing can be built quickly when needed, the upward pressure on rents remains limited – a scenario referred to as elastic supply. This has clearly not been the case in Switzerland in recent decades. According to Caldera and Johansson (2013), the price elasticity of new residential construction in Switzerland is the lowest among all 21 OECD countries surveyed. In phases of strong household growth, supply prices therefore rise significantly, making it more difficult for many households to find a home.
The popular initiative being put to the vote is not a suitable instrument for alleviating the housing shortage. On the contrary, in the run-up phase, it could even further dampen the supply of affordable housing. In the long term, limiting population growth would help to prevent a repeat of the current situation, where housing production cannot keep pace with rapid household growth. In other words, the initiative addresses a structural cause of the shortage but does not resolve the current situation in the short term.
Irrespective of the vote’s outcome, the local construction market should be developed in such a way that the housing supply keeps pace with population growth. The aim is not to increase the number of housing units across the board, but to quickly create additional living space in well-developed locations during phases of strong household growth.
Conclusion
Switzerland’s strong population growth in recent decades has left a clear mark on the real estate sector. Against this backdrop, the popular initiative “No 10-Million Swiss!” calls for immigration to be limited.
Acceptance of the initiative is likely to lead to lower economic growth in the long term, lower demand for housing, and consequently a weaker increase in the market value of development land, investment properties, and residential real estate. At the same time, however, there is a risk that the limited availability of skilled labor will slow down residential construction.
During the transition phase, conditions in the housing market could even worsen: a gloomy long-term outlook and heightened uncertainty could dampen housing production. If the population continues to grow simultaneously, the existing housing shortage could intensify and further increase the recent rise in asking rents.
Solutions from Wüest Partner
On June 30, 2026, we will provide a regulatory update during a webcast (in German).
With Wüest Dimensions, we can model how regulatory scenarios will impact real estate portfolio valuation.
Wüest Partner also has a population forecasting model that projects demographic trends until 2055 for every municipality in Switzerland, broken down by gender, nationality, and age. The forecast can be used, for example, as a basis for school space planning or for location and capacity planning for healthcare services. Additionally, immigration restrictions can be mapped in an implementation scenario.
Sources
– Caldera Sánchez, Aida; Johansson, Åsa (2013): The Price Responsiveness of Housing Supply in OECD Countries, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, Nr. 1016, OECD Publishing.
– Demografik (2026). Abschätzung der Auswirkungen einer Begrenzung der Bevölkerung in der Schweiz auf 10 Millionen. Demografik. Im Auftrag des Staatssekretariats für Migration (SEM).
– Dubois, Corinne; Weinert, Robert (2024): «Mietpreisentwicklungen: Auf der Suche nach den fundamentalen Erklärungsfaktoren», Swiss Real Estate Journal, 29.
– Helfer, Fabienne; Grossmann, Volker; Osikominu, Aderonke (2023): How does immigration affect housing costs in Switzerland? Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 159(5).
– Schläpfer, Jörg (2026): Was ist los auf dem Immobilienmarkt? Die Volkswirtschaft.
– Wüest Partner (2024): Bevölkerung und Haushalte: Die Entwicklung in der Schweiz bis 2050. Blog.
