Property Market Switzerland 2026 | 1

For 2026, we expect real economic growth of +1.3%. This should provide positive momentum for the labour market. However, the effects will vary consid­erably across sectors. In addition, efficiency gains driven by the increased use of artificial intel­li­gence are likely to constrain the creation of new jobs. Overall, we therefore antic­ipate only moderate employment growth of 0.4%, which corre­sponds to around one third of the average recorded over the past ten years (+1.2%).

The subdued growth in employment is likely to have a dampening effect on inter­na­tional immigration, which is the key driver of population growth in Switzerland. Accord­ingly, a slower increase in housing demand can also be expected.

Financing condi­tions remain favourable thanks to the low SNB policy rate. For more than a year, interest rates on ten-year fixed-rate mortgages have been fluctu­ating within a narrow range of 1.8% to 2.0%. While long-term interest rates are therefore slightly above the excep­tionally low levels seen in 2020–2021, they remain attractive by historical standards.

With regard to the further devel­opment of the SNB policy rate, our baseline scenario assumes that it will remain at 0% in the coming months. As a result, no additional demand-stimulating impulses are to be expected from the interest rate side.